Population, guns, and economies
- Thread starter Petrol & Powder
- Start date
RBHarter
West Central AR
I've seen 10 million rounds of 50 BMG all in one room .
A unamed party has many rooms with with many times that in smaller cartridges occupying similar spaces .
It is like wine in some regards . Some of it is from 1st to 3rd lots of current favorites , some of it is MASH story era in the JMB family and the other 2/3 is Carlo Rossi and Ripple from whatever was left over in Bakersfield after Napa got done with the hand selection .
Of course that was a number of years ago , it's probably been 25 years since bulk packs of LC 42 belted 50 BMG was suplussed out in rail cars pushing max gross weights ........
Lots of commercial ammo in popular cartridges has crimped primers now . Old standards have mixed primer pockets even from the same brands . I suspect bean counters saying "but we will save 2 man hours on the cartridge change over if we don't have to change out the feed tubes" .
Remington went to sale with some 9-10 digit back order of ammunition orders pending , 2 yr ago . They didn't run it , it hasn't been run by a transfer team , and the new owners can't run it because their ownership is under review for anti-trust law legality of transfer . Current wholesale values , tilted toward the mean not the average puts that at about 200,000,000 boxes of ammo in 20,25, and 50 count boxes . Ya know just round numbers at $5 a box assuming 264 WM , 45-70 , and 45 Colts are really at $14-20 per Wholesale and RF ammo balances that out in $2.50 50 counts . That's just a hiccup in supply going into 2020 , that void of lost production in just cases not even loaded ammo has an impact even if it is just a piddly 12-15% of the gross market . Demand goes up 40% against market that's only at 80% of recovery from the last train wreck and and take away 10% of production and there's 95-97% demand draw against production every day .......add the rush and it becomes a 125-150% draw and any stocking or warehousing buffers disappear in a hurry .
Pending decisions by the people this summer may help the situation some but it could just as easily make bootleggers running the border from Canada a real thing again only for powder and primers instead whiskey .
A unamed party has many rooms with with many times that in smaller cartridges occupying similar spaces .
It is like wine in some regards . Some of it is from 1st to 3rd lots of current favorites , some of it is MASH story era in the JMB family and the other 2/3 is Carlo Rossi and Ripple from whatever was left over in Bakersfield after Napa got done with the hand selection .
Of course that was a number of years ago , it's probably been 25 years since bulk packs of LC 42 belted 50 BMG was suplussed out in rail cars pushing max gross weights ........
Lots of commercial ammo in popular cartridges has crimped primers now . Old standards have mixed primer pockets even from the same brands . I suspect bean counters saying "but we will save 2 man hours on the cartridge change over if we don't have to change out the feed tubes" .
Remington went to sale with some 9-10 digit back order of ammunition orders pending , 2 yr ago . They didn't run it , it hasn't been run by a transfer team , and the new owners can't run it because their ownership is under review for anti-trust law legality of transfer . Current wholesale values , tilted toward the mean not the average puts that at about 200,000,000 boxes of ammo in 20,25, and 50 count boxes . Ya know just round numbers at $5 a box assuming 264 WM , 45-70 , and 45 Colts are really at $14-20 per Wholesale and RF ammo balances that out in $2.50 50 counts . That's just a hiccup in supply going into 2020 , that void of lost production in just cases not even loaded ammo has an impact even if it is just a piddly 12-15% of the gross market . Demand goes up 40% against market that's only at 80% of recovery from the last train wreck and and take away 10% of production and there's 95-97% demand draw against production every day .......add the rush and it becomes a 125-150% draw and any stocking or warehousing buffers disappear in a hurry .
Pending decisions by the people this summer may help the situation some but it could just as easily make bootleggers running the border from Canada a real thing again only for powder and primers instead whiskey .
CZ93X62
Official forum enigma
That has been de rigueur in Kalifornistan for some time. Enough said.
Rick H
Well-Known Member
What leaves a sour taste in my mouth is the CEO of Federal and his solemn videos of how they are maxed out trying to produce product to meet demand, yet they manage to find time to introduce a new cartridge and spend time and money ginning up demand for it.....not to mention production capacity. He is spewing the stuff you scrape off your boots after walking through a pasture.
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Petrol & Powder
Well-Known Member
Fear is a powerful motivator.
When people think they cannot obtain something they will buy every example of that thing and at nearly any price.
When people think they cannot obtain something they will buy every example of that thing and at nearly any price.
L Ross
Well-Known Member
We just smiled and waved......
Sittin' there on that sack of seeds.
richhodg66
Well-Known Member
Haven't heard that song in ages.
Petrol & Powder
Well-Known Member
From the article linked in the first post:
americangunfacts.com
"......32% of Americans say they personally own a firearm according to the 2021 National Firearms Survey. This means that more than 81.4 million Americans own guns. ...."
".......The United States has a lot of guns, especially for a massive, peaceful, and prosperous country. In fact, about 1/3 of all the civilian guns in the world are in the hands of Americans.........."
".........There are estimated to be over 400 million guns in the United States between police, the military, and American civilians. Over 393 Million (Over 98%) of those guns are in civilian hands, the equivalent of 120 firearms per 100 citizens......."
How Many Guns are in the US? [2024]
After fighting for their independence, the founding fathers enshrined Americans’ right to firearms in the Second Amendment.
americangunfacts.com
"......32% of Americans say they personally own a firearm according to the 2021 National Firearms Survey. This means that more than 81.4 million Americans own guns. ...."
".......The United States has a lot of guns, especially for a massive, peaceful, and prosperous country. In fact, about 1/3 of all the civilian guns in the world are in the hands of Americans.........."
".........There are estimated to be over 400 million guns in the United States between police, the military, and American civilians. Over 393 Million (Over 98%) of those guns are in civilian hands, the equivalent of 120 firearms per 100 citizens......."
RBHarter
West Central AR
The largest unofficial or official army on the planet ..........
I must say there are a lot of over achievers in this country I only know one person with only one gun most have 3-5 ........
A big game rifle . Cant go wrong with an 06'
A RF that strongly resembles the big game rifle . For cheap rifle practice .
A shotgun preferably suited to the largest available fowl . 12 ga is good for everything .
A game suited pistol . 357 has the option of cheap 38s for practice .
It's been a standard guide for the all around sportsman in print possibly since 1946 maybe longer , and since 1957 I've seen for certain .
The 03' and WIn 67 sure made a nice pair .
The 12 ga is probably more diverse than at any other time , but the 20 isn't really far behind it .
The 44 might be close to as diverse if the special weren't treated like a premium .
I must say there are a lot of over achievers in this country I only know one person with only one gun most have 3-5 ........
A big game rifle . Cant go wrong with an 06'
A RF that strongly resembles the big game rifle . For cheap rifle practice .
A shotgun preferably suited to the largest available fowl . 12 ga is good for everything .
A game suited pistol . 357 has the option of cheap 38s for practice .
It's been a standard guide for the all around sportsman in print possibly since 1946 maybe longer , and since 1957 I've seen for certain .
The 03' and WIn 67 sure made a nice pair .
The 12 ga is probably more diverse than at any other time , but the 20 isn't really far behind it .
The 44 might be close to as diverse if the special weren't treated like a premium .
Petrol & Powder
Well-Known Member
Many people that own a gun, own more than one gun.
Which means they have to feed more than one gun.
With a third of the population over the age of 18 being gun owners, and even a higher percentage if you count by household, that's a lot of guns in a nation of 332 Million people. Add to that an increase in new gun owners that is in the millions per year, for several years running, and you have a tremendous demand.
Add to all of that FEAR, and you have incredibly large strains on supply networks.
Which means they have to feed more than one gun.
With a third of the population over the age of 18 being gun owners, and even a higher percentage if you count by household, that's a lot of guns in a nation of 332 Million people. Add to that an increase in new gun owners that is in the millions per year, for several years running, and you have a tremendous demand.
Add to all of that FEAR, and you have incredibly large strains on supply networks.
Tomme boy
Well-Known Member
But, most people bought a box or two of ammo and NEVER go shooting. Almost every person I know that have guns have not been shooting in over 10 years or more. Just because you have a gun doesn't mean you are out there buying up all the ammo and reloading supplies. My brother has never been shooting but he collects all kinds of guns. And he has a bunch of them.
Deer or pheasant hunting as an example. Most of them guys go out the opening day and never get their guns out till next year opening day. I don't buy this SHORTAGE.
The great 22rf shortage as an example. Remington was saying they were running 24/7 to keep up. Well I was on vacation and drove by the Remington ammo plant in Arkansas. On a Wednesday at about 1 PM in August. There was about 15 cars there in a parking lot of about 500 spaces.
Deer or pheasant hunting as an example. Most of them guys go out the opening day and never get their guns out till next year opening day. I don't buy this SHORTAGE.
The great 22rf shortage as an example. Remington was saying they were running 24/7 to keep up. Well I was on vacation and drove by the Remington ammo plant in Arkansas. On a Wednesday at about 1 PM in August. There was about 15 cars there in a parking lot of about 500 spaces.
Petrol & Powder
Well-Known Member
Perhaps your experiences are not representative of the other 81+ MILLION owners of over 400 MILLION guns.
America is the 3rd most populous nation on the earth and has the largest amount of guns in private hands of any country in the world.
America is the 3rd most populous nation on the earth and has the largest amount of guns in private hands of any country in the world.
Tomme boy
Well-Known Member
But do they shoot them? That is the ? that needs an answer. Of the 81M there are less than 500K people at the most that actually go out and use them. The ones that do shoot most of the time shoot A LOT!. Like a lot of the people on here. The people that shoot a lot are the ones that are panic buying. Yes in the last 2 years there were lots of new gun owners. They bought 1 or 2 boxes of ammo and that will probably be it. They bought a gun to help protect themselves. Which is GOOD. But they will probably never buy another box of ammo again.
Here the Scheels has every type of ammo you could want. Not at good prices but it is all available again. They have one whole isle of 223 on one side and 8mm on the other. All at $20/box. And it is sitting there. Along with all the hunting type ammo of every caliber.
Here the Scheels has every type of ammo you could want. Not at good prices but it is all available again. They have one whole isle of 223 on one side and 8mm on the other. All at $20/box. And it is sitting there. Along with all the hunting type ammo of every caliber.
Petrol & Powder
Well-Known Member
"....Of the 81M there are less than 500K people at the most that actually go out and use them...." Do you have any proof to back up that number of 500K or did you just pull that out of thin air?
If you have actual evidence of some collusion by the private sector to reduce supply or actual evidence of some conspiracy to deplete the supply, we would all like to hear it.
I understand the frustration of people that cannot obtain something they want. However, never underestimate to power of the consumer. There are a LOT of people in the U.S.A. and they have a HUGE influence over the markets they function in.
If you have actual evidence of some collusion by the private sector to reduce supply or actual evidence of some conspiracy to deplete the supply, we would all like to hear it.
I understand the frustration of people that cannot obtain something they want. However, never underestimate to power of the consumer. There are a LOT of people in the U.S.A. and they have a HUGE influence over the markets they function in.
RBHarter
West Central AR
Some one reported or it was related round numbers that the US has half the guns on the planet . It wouldn't surprise me it we had half of all of the Mausers ever made . I met a guy once that had more Walker repops than there were originals made .
There's probably one of us or one of us knows someone that has as many Mosins as the typical Russian battalion of WWII .
At one point I had a comparitive representative example of every type of arm except a wheel and match lock type that had graced the American people .
I had a few true classics too but the kids have grown up and claimed their set of 4 basics and the grands are close to or have their firsts also from the stash so I have a few special to me and a few heirlooms to go with a couple of work horses .
I set a goal for stock on hand in 2010 , I'm not there yet but I have enough parts to meet that goal and have the parts available for the reserve goal limit . In hind sight it was a really ambitious goal .
There's probably one of us or one of us knows someone that has as many Mosins as the typical Russian battalion of WWII .
At one point I had a comparitive representative example of every type of arm except a wheel and match lock type that had graced the American people .
I had a few true classics too but the kids have grown up and claimed their set of 4 basics and the grands are close to or have their firsts also from the stash so I have a few special to me and a few heirlooms to go with a couple of work horses .
I set a goal for stock on hand in 2010 , I'm not there yet but I have enough parts to meet that goal and have the parts available for the reserve goal limit . In hind sight it was a really ambitious goal .
L Ross
Well-Known Member
And the supply chain may not be as robust as we imagine it to be.
Petrol & Powder
Well-Known Member
Shortages of ammunition on the retail level are not created by people shooting ammunition. Shortages on the retail level are cause by people BUYING ammunition.
Petrol & Powder
Well-Known Member
/\ I think that is an uncomfortable reality and I agree completely.
A supply system that was adequate before millions of new gun owners appeared, and millions upon millions of fearful people buying every bit of ammunition they can find - is no longer adequate.
That bubble will burst (it always does) but it's difficult to see that bubble when you're in it.
How many people who buy a firearm, new or used, don’t buy ammo for it? The firearm transfer numbers are for people who acquired a gun new to them and that usually means ammo is purchased.
Wonder how many rounds of ammo are sitting on shelves in homes right now?
Wonder how many rounds of ammo are sitting on shelves in homes right now?