When do you think common folk will be able to buy primes again?

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462

California's Central Coast Amid The Insanity
Well, John, some of us are not so well blessed as to not be folically challenged. At least on our pates. And, you can be assured the testosterone thing is quite true.
 

Winelover

North Central Arkansas
Well, John, some of us are not so well blessed as to not be folically challenged. At least on our pates. And, you can be assured the testosterone thing is quite true.
Yeah, I've heard some such nonsense that guys became bald from rubbing their heads on the headboard. :rofl: Give me a break.
 

L Ross

Well-Known Member
half the old Guys are blaming those prices on the new guys not knowing they shouldn't cost that much.

all i know is if it was 1985 and primers cost 60-70 bucks a brick i'd have never bothered buying a reloading press.
Yeah but, 1985 dollars?
 

BudHyett

Active Member
This is a good time to organize. Odd lots of primers and powder. Going to the range to experiment and see. I’m using powder from early 1980’s to use it up. Had to buy a .220 Swift several years ago to use up IMR 4064. The problem is I have large pistol primers and few rifles to shoot thtin. My Marlin 1894 .45 Colt may become my Production Rifle for competition.
 

Tomme boy

Well-Known Member
A friend just told me he was so excited that he got a brick of primers at a shop he stopped in. $131 out the door! I told him he was a dumb F! And i would have just gave him a brick if he needed them that bad. He then tells me that I can still give him the brick. I told him no as he already made a bad decision the first time and I was not going to let that happen again. He gave me a blank stare and then turned around and left. He actually thought that price was a good deal.

I am still sitting pretty good for several more years. Especially since I have been shooting my 22rf, black powders, shotguns more than I ever have. But black powder goes extremely fast in a rifle. I never have stocked up on it. But, Addicted to black powder Shop is only a drive across the river and then 35 miles. He has everything. Even caps. He said he has other powder also so I need to take a drive to just see what he has. Just debating if I want to shell out the $$$ for the Swiss powder he also has. He has 2-3 others
 

Bret4207

At the casting bench in the sky. RIP Bret.
I have a good supply of shotgun primers and the big ML caps. I should trade them off for what I need in CF primers. But I still have a good supply of most CF primers. Some still have the tags on the box in my fathers scrawl- ".90" per sleeve!!! Those were the days! Still, I'm hesitant to use too many lest I run out and can't replace them. Even the shop I've done business with for 25 years up here will only sell one sleeve at a time to me or one box of 22's. I'm uncomfortable with the modern way of doing things.
 
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Jeff H

NW Ohio
This is a good time to organize. Odd lots of primers and powder. Going to the range to experiment and see. I’m using powder from early 1980’s to use it up. Had to buy a .220 Swift several years ago to use up IMR 4064. The problem is I have large pistol primers and few rifles to shoot thtin. My Marlin 1894 .45 Colt may become my Production Rifle for competition.

Not an original thought on my part, but in 1982, on a weekend, at a range on Fort Ord, California, a guy showed me his H&R Handi-Rifle in 30/30. I was smitten. He then, excitedly showed me a list of barrel you could get fitted to one of these frames, and he had marked all the ones he had ordered through the Post Rod & Gun club. That got me thinking and the idea steeped. For a long time.

When I grew up, you got what you got. Anything beyond basic necessities was up to you and there were few opportunities to exercise that particular "liberty." If we weren't in school, we were working at home - "earning our keep." No socializing or goofing off with other kids. We did an inordinate amount of work for the roof over our heads, the food we ate and the clothes, which we didn't get to pick out. When we were gifted a 22 rifle, we got ONE box of fifty rounds. After that, it was on us. I could skip a thirty-five-cent lunch, in t he school cafeteria a day or two a week and have money for ammo. I had to get a kid from across the field to pick them up because he had a driver's license and free time.

That, and the influence of grandparents who lived comfortably (not lavishly, by any means) after surviving a depression and escaping coal-town poverty in Appalachia ingrained this very concept in my psyche. I let things get ahead of me for about twenty years and ended up with a bunch of stuff I couldn't keep up with - plenty of primers, but not the specific ones which worked best with a certain powder in a particular rifle - and so on.

Finally, by coincidence, about 2008, I decided to clean house, simplify and put myself in a situation wherein I would have what I needed, regardless of the overall economy - or my personal economic situation. I put a lot of thought into this over many years and finally worked it all out. Midway through this process, I spent a couple years conversing via e-mail with a nephew, who had questions about "which rifle," which handgun," so over the course of a few years, I answered all his questions - and then some. I compiled all of this (my side of it) into a document as I went and have edited and trimmed it pretty ruthlessly over time, yet it is still over 25,000 words. Imagine that.:)

A lot of this was also batted back and forth with a younger and dear friend who isn't subject to the "gotta haves" and makes very pragmatic decisions on his own personal battery. He much more succinctly communicated the crux of the concept in an article on his site Off the Map Outdoors, so I never did anything with my tome. Yet, I may have a chance to share it with one of my sons in law, who really has his head on straight and is already thinking along these lines.

Most here probably came to similar sensible conclusions on the matter, but it took me a while to flesh it out, but the vetting process was a huge source of "entertainment" and distraction, which kept me sane through several years of not getting to shoot as much as I wanted, which was not only economic reasons or lack of availability of components. Between casting, hand-loading, prowling for "deals" (meaning reasonable prices) on components, and shooting a rimmed pistol cartridge in a lever or single-shot carbine (and revolver) metered my usage - expenditure of resources - to a degree that it stretched them significantly and I got a lot more enjoyment out of it than when I was shooting a minimum of fifty or a hundred rounds through each of several guns at a time.

@BudHyett , I personally believe that lever-actions (or single-shots), chambered in rimmed pistol cartridges (for which you also have revolvers) is THE way to go to have a viable, versatile arm to keep entertaining (or protecting) yourself at a rate which is even more gratifying than burning off several hundred rounds every weekend. Practice, practice, practice,... Mmm-hmmm. Tell that to my grand-dad who owned a rusty old junker single-shot 22, along with the same tattered box of shells which predated my birth, and a squirrel for each and every round that was missing from that box. Iron sights, old eyes, shots I'd not have chanced, yet a squirrel every single time.

I don't think we will hurt, or even significantly discomfort ourselves conserving and consolidating components and starving out the scalpers, when we can go back and appreciate all the time-consuming aspects of shooting we have spent a lot of time eliminating, like going back to single-stage loading, casting, experimenting with how much we can do with how little.
 

Petrol & Powder

Well-Known Member
I just read this article (it is a rehash of an older story and nothing new) but it serves to remind us that this is a HUGE country. We are the 3rd most populous nation on earth. (Only behind China & India). We have the largest number of firearms in private hands, IN THE WORLD. By a large margin. A small fraction of a really big number is still a really big number. In this case the big number is the population of the U.S.A. (roughly 331 million).



I don't know what percentage of the total ammunition market is held by reloaders, but I strongly suspect that ammunition components (such as primers) make up a very small percentage of the new primer output. I do not have the data, but I suspect primers allocated for sale as reloading components are at the bottom of those allocation decisions. In any event, market pressures rule. We were recently reminded of the power of the consumer to create shortages.

When people do not understand the source of their frustration, there is a strong tendency to put forth bizarre explanations that include evil corporations, collusion, and conspiracy theories.

I totally agree with Jeff H, If I was selling dandelion seeds for a dollar each, I would sell those as long as I had seeds and customers willing to pay. However, the INSTANT someone next door to me starts selling dandelion seeds for $0.10/ bushel, I will have zero customers.

Primers will sell for $100/K as long as there as people willing to pay $100/K. Eventually the market will correct itself, IT ALWAYS DOES. History has shown this and yet people in the middle of the bubble can rarely see this. The sellers do not want you to think about it because they are selling dandelion seeds for a dollar each and they will do so as long as they can.
 

Dimner

Named Man
I totally agree with Jeff H, If I was selling dandelion seeds for a dollar each, I would sell those as long as I had seeds and customers willing to pay. However, the INSTANT someone next door to me starts selling dandelion seeds for $0.10/ bushel, I will have zero customers.
/q

P&P very well said. All the points you make are spot on.

The extra factor that is going to prolong the market correction is that there is a huge barrier to enter the market and start selling those seeds for $0.10/bushel. Both legal and material barriers. That is why this correction is and will take so long to happen. Anyone with any business sense and enough money to start up a primer mfg operation knows the market will correct its self eventually. With that knowledge, the numbers just don't add up. After the market correction, there will be very slim profits or none for this new mfg. I wish it was easier for someone to get up and running and selling primers, but the time/cost to get up and running and the long term prospects of profits have not enticed any serious investment into new primer manufacturers.
 

Petrol & Powder

Well-Known Member
P&P very well said. All the points you make are spot on.

The extra factor that is going to prolong the market correction is that there is a huge barrier to enter the market and start selling those seeds for $0.10/bushel. Both legal and material barriers. That is why this correction is and will take so long to happen. Anyone with any business sense and enough money to start up a primer mfg operation knows the market will correct its self eventually. With that knowledge, the numbers just don't add up. After the market correction, there will be very slim profits or none for this new mfg. I wish it was easier for someone to get up and running and selling primers, but the time/cost to get up and running and the long term prospects of profits have not enticed any serious investment into new primer manufacturers.
Very true.

That was the same reason that when there was high demand for 22 LR and powders, manufacturers refused to add production capacity. Expansion of manufacturing by temporarily adding shifts and more employees isn't very risky. However, HUGE capital outlays for more real estate, buildings, more machinery, etc. is extremely risky. That debt must be served and when the bubble bursts (and they know it will), they will be stuck with HUGE debt and no market. So, they ride out the bubble. It is the responsible thing to do for your shareholders.
 

todd

Well-Known Member
the bad part of this is that people who already bought the overpriced primers are going to stay (primers and powder) at their house till they die. "i bought x amount of primers/powder at y dollars, GD, i got a steal!!!" not knowing that the prices will go down because people like me aren't buying sh.....er......poop. i don't have a lifetime supply but i'm middling. not too much, not too little. my last batch of primers cost me $30/1000(near the end of the Obummer term) and i'll say $20-30/lb of powder (Trump term). i have about 8 or 9000 primers (large, small, rifle, pistol) and 6 or 7lb of each different powder(imr 4895, 2400, hs-6, rel 7....). i use cast boolits and molds and i have a lifetime supply of lead and tin. jacketed bullets worries me a little bit (270 140gr hornady sst, 20 vartarg 34gr midway/midsouth hp....) but i have about 500 270 cases loaded up and 1000 +/- 22VT loaded up also. i think i have a lifetime supply...lol. well not the 20VT, i luv to shoot it. my 22 rimfires only come out once or twice a year and then it is only 50 some 22lr are shot. I'll have to check on my stash but its somewhere around 5-6000 rounds. after my dad died, i got the 22's and several thousand rounds of ammo not to mention his other guns. the last time i ever bought 22 ammo was in Trump's term and it was $16/500-525 rounds($18 but i got discount) and i think i spent $120+/- on them.

i think that the price will come down, but not at old prices. $40-50/lb of powder and $40-50/1000 primers. i remember starting out reloading it was $20/1000 primers and $20/lb of powder, that was in the early '90s. in the '80s, it was $7 or 8 for a box 30-30 cartridges(20) and $9 or 10 for a box of '06 cartridges(20). depending on what you buy, .69 - .79 cents for 50 rounds of 22lr or $7 or 8/500 rounds. ohhh well...........memories.
 

Jeff H

NW Ohio
Pertaining to the last three posts, by P&P and Dimner:

I worked in a a factory making washing machines in the late eighties. The number of washing machines we produced in a shit (I forget the number) was so high that it was unfathomable where they were all going. This truly IS a huge country and there really ARE a LOT of people in it who are buying stuff, even when the economy is in the crapper.

I spent ten years with a company which did about 80% of its business with the auto-industry, not just the "big three," but also Nissan, Toyota and Honda. Again, seeing the production capacity in those plants - the number of cars being made - was unfathomable. Even for as long as I was in industry (manufacturing) it was still hard to wrap my head around where all this stuff was going.

There were other, smaller manufacturers, like Schrade Walden, Russel Harrington and Hyde, which were incredibly small outfits, supplying an enormous market. Schrade was the most surprising, as our salesman from the area visited their plant and called me to tell me how small the place was. There was a lot of handling and manual operations in the plant, when the rest of the world was very automated, yet there were an abundance of Schrade knives in every WM, hardware store, sporting goods store - anywhere you went in the US. Hyde tools as well. Putty knives with "Hyde" on the handle everywhere you went.

The Internet brings the far-flung, few and far between together, such that it appears as though there are a lot of us who agree on a lot of things and do a lot of the same things, but we are still a very small percentage of the overall population and market. I personally do not have the luxury of associating (in person) with more than ONE other person who casts bullets or hand-loads, and I live in a very rural/agricultural area. I actually SEE that one other person about once a year. I see my brother even less than that, but he doesn't cast. He hand-loads, but he also lives 700+ miles away.

It IS very difficult to wrap one's head around the enormity of the population of this country, so it's even harder to imagine just how small a bit of it we are. I don't know how much of the primer market we are, percentage-wise, but it seems it's been significant enough to support quite a number of suppliers to a worthwhile degree for many years.

No one is going to come to our rescue out of the goodness of their hearts. If someone else decides to make primers, or find a way to source them from Mexico or Australia, they will do so to get in on the big bucks. The last time gasoline hit $4/gallon, there were testing rigs parked along the road everywhere, looking for oil and gas. These companies weren't out there to save the poor souls driving more than they need to, they were there to get in on $4/gallon gasoline and disappeared the moment prices started coming down. I have to stop there or it will involve the politics behind that benevolent gesture, which.... we paid for.
 

Petrol & Powder

Well-Known Member
..........i think that the price will come down, but not at old prices. $40-50/lb of powder and $40-50/1000 primers. i remember starting out reloading it was $20/1000 primers and $20/lb of powder, that was in the early '90s. in the '80s, it was $7 or 8 for a box 30-30 cartridges(20) and $9 or 10 for a box of '06 cartridges(20). depending on what you buy, .69 - .79 cents for 50 rounds of 22lr or $7 or 8/500 rounds. ohhh well...........memories.
You cannot compare prices in 1980's dollars with prices today in 2020's dollars.
The very first step is to adjust the numbers for the VALUE of the dollar. The buying power of a dollar is not static.

Inflation (in simple terms the buying power of a dollar) accounts for some of the differences in price over the years. It doesn't account for all of the increase but it is an important first step to compare apples to apples over 40 years.
 

quicksylver

Well-Known Member
Perspective, we as cast bullet shooters/ reloaders( the minority) have had it good for a pretty long time.Primers were within easy grasp price wise , ditto for powder, brass was free (pretty much),as was lead , lino and tin, what powder we got went a long ways,when shooting cast bullets,compared to jacked.Our biggest gripe was once the cost of gas checks, especially for hand gun loads.That was our world. Now for the majority of shooters, those who didn't cast or reload but chose to purchase factory or surplus ammo,they have found themselves searching far and wide for it, many have recently decided to take up reloading. Those people have no clue as to past prices, those who shot high power were used to the volume of powder they consumed and the price of premeium bullets. ,these people today are looking at 40 cent bullets and an average of 30 cents in powder, a 15 cent primer is the cheapest componet,so consequently their concern is not the price of primers but rather where and when can they get them.
The last time i was in a LGS they had pallets of 9mm and 5.56, apparently the manufacturers have stepped up their game to satisfy the majoriry of consumers, doing so uses a lot of primers leaving us reloaders wanting,the avaiability of SRP seems to have increasd , but LRPand SPP/LPPare still hens teeth. I have given up taking four or five boxes of handgun plinking ammo to the range and limit myself to 25 rounds of rifle per session,making sure every round is the best just like the good old days of my youth.
To answer Jims' question I thinks it's going to be a couple of years. will I buy some 15cent primers, probably. Just have to wait and see. . dan
 
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