Well, I did some tests but was unable to stop the bullets or find them. My initial conclusion is the split nose is going to need some help.
Not having any newspaper, I took a piece of house carpet and about 80 pieces of cardboard that had been soaking in a bucket all day and stacked those together. the bullet was through and through and lost in the earth embankment. Exit hole in the last piece of cardboard showed that some part of the bullet had expanded maybe to .35 caliber, but that was it. Bullet did not yaw or come apart through a 10" bale of wet cardboard wired together.
Round two was the same, but with a hotel curtain folded up for about 64 layers of rubberized cloth behind the cardboard and carpet, same results and didn't find the bullet even after digging six inches into the embankment.
Third test was with carpet, cardboard, a 5-gallon bucket of crumb rubber mulch, and a wet bag of blasting sand. Bullet went right through it all and more than several inches into the damp caliche beneath, never did find it. Hope it didn't hurt a Chinese!
So back to the shop I went and did some smash tests. First one was with a 2# hammer, medium swing. Bullet made a coin instantly, but the nose only split apart a little bit. So I took a plastic deadblow mallet and used lighter taps on another one, getting the nose to split but the point rolled over. I did a few more and they all made J-bends and only split a little at the foil.
Now for the even more disappointing part. Right out of the oven, sized, and loaded, these bullets tested off the Lee scale at probably 7.5 BHN. The air cooled culls cast a few days ago were almost 9 BHN. So if a 7.5 BHN spitzer won't expand at 960 fps even with a split behind the point, I have my doubts a 12. 5 BHN fully-cured bullet will. I'm not sure where to go next.