Ok, I'm officially calling off the testing due to some light baffle strikes.
The problem seems to be a combination of the hole I drilled through the nose, and some just-out-of-the-oven, soft bullets, and the kick in the shorts that 6.4 grains of Titegroup was giving these. The nose seems to have slumped pretty badly, as you will see from the rifling marks way up the nose on these. The noses before firing are about .001-2" smaller than bore diameter but have even land marks all around after firing.
Bullet on the left is just as I prepped them for firing. It rolled a little but the hole is right in the middle.
Next bullet from the left is the first one I fired. It went through carpet, a glossy magazine, 8" of packed, wet cardboard, the side of an old brittle 5-gallon bucket full of crumb rubber mulch, almost going out the other side but stopping short. The nose and main body of the bullet were found close together, within an inch or so. Shattered pieces of bucket the size of quarters followed the bullet and were all around where it stopped, so it must have opened up a pretty good cavity in the mulch for those pieces to make it nearly all the way across to the other side of the bucket.
The next one over is the second shot, I moved the cardboard stack over a little for a fresh place to shoot, but lined the shot up with the golf-ball sized hole in the bucket from the previous shot to eliminate the plastic as a factor in expansion. This one made a decent hole in the cardboard pack, but turned in the mulch and punched out the bottom of the bucket and into some sand a couple inches where I dug it out. Why it didn't expand at all I cannot explain, but look at the land marks and nose set back.
The last one smacked the second-to-last baffle of my silencer and you can see where the base raked the powder coating off on the aperture. Opposite the struck baffle, on the end cap hole, was more scuffing that showed the bullet yawed coming out. All the holes in the first layer of cardboard showed slight yawing, the last shot the worst. Due to the yaw and strike (I guess) the last shot broke up in the wet pack, making quite the shredded hole and dumping the nose and both halves of the body into the cardboard. The base continued through and into the bucket of mulch (through the little window hole in the side of the bucket) and made it about halfway through it, seeming to trace a straight path.
So I've managed to make the most unpredictable bullet of all time, thanks to the slump-o-matic nose.