Your opinion on future prices and availability of primers ,powder and bullets.
- Thread starter Foo
- Start date
Supply and demand will govern future prices as it does today. Our mission, if we choose to accept it, is to contact the new primer supplier and show them there is a steady demand with reloaders. Not a large market, but steady. The second item to tell them is the rifle reloaders wanting premium primers.
With 8,000,000 new gun sales, we should be able to enlarge our market enough to interest the third party primer maker. Federal, CCI, Remington, Winchester-western have long supplied our needs, this new company will also if they see the market.
The one item that is hard to predict is the overall inflation rate. If all items go up at this year's rate, then all bets are off.
With 8,000,000 new gun sales, we should be able to enlarge our market enough to interest the third party primer maker. Federal, CCI, Remington, Winchester-western have long supplied our needs, this new company will also if they see the market.
The one item that is hard to predict is the overall inflation rate. If all items go up at this year's rate, then all bets are off.
Dusty Bannister
Well-Known Member
I would think that if one is concerned about the price of bullets, you need more time at the casting furnace. As well as time at the range working up your loads. Trying to make a rational projection on the price and availability for powder and primers during a period of irrational administration, has got to be irrational as well.
Petrol & Powder
Well-Known Member
The prices WILL drop.
Foo wrote, "....Shooters are paying 3-4 times what they should cost so why would they lower the profits."
Who is the "They" in the above statement? The manufacturers? The retailers? The guy with a closet full of .22 ammunition that he foolishly paid $120/brick back in 2008 and now he can't find buyers?
The high prices for ammunition and components are currently artificially inflated, but those prices are currently being set by the BUYERS not the sellers. As long as there are people willing to pay obscenely high prices, there will be people more than happy to take their money.
People are paying more for ammunition and components right now because those people are scared. They are scared they will not be able to obtain those items in the future. They believe the propaganda that the current prices are "The New Normal" (they are not). They are prone to believe this because they are being driven by fear.
The prices will drop when the demand cools. The current bubble will burst simply because it is not sustainable in the face of free market.
How much will prices drop? No one can say. Will the prices drop below pre-panic levels? Probably not, but that's due to inflation, the overall increased demand and some increased costs such as fuel prices and transportation expenses. I don't think we'll see $20/K primers again (at least not a steady price after the bubble bursts) but the current insanity is not sustainable when the fear dissipates.
The guy that has a shipping container full of primers that he paid $90/K for MUST to sell them for more than $90/K. He will desperately try to convince you that $100/K "Is the new normal". If he cannot sell those primers for more than he paid for them - He (not you) has a huge problem.
We've been through this before folks. A few months or even a few years does not define the "new normal".
Foo wrote, "....Shooters are paying 3-4 times what they should cost so why would they lower the profits."
Who is the "They" in the above statement? The manufacturers? The retailers? The guy with a closet full of .22 ammunition that he foolishly paid $120/brick back in 2008 and now he can't find buyers?
The high prices for ammunition and components are currently artificially inflated, but those prices are currently being set by the BUYERS not the sellers. As long as there are people willing to pay obscenely high prices, there will be people more than happy to take their money.
People are paying more for ammunition and components right now because those people are scared. They are scared they will not be able to obtain those items in the future. They believe the propaganda that the current prices are "The New Normal" (they are not). They are prone to believe this because they are being driven by fear.
The prices will drop when the demand cools. The current bubble will burst simply because it is not sustainable in the face of free market.
How much will prices drop? No one can say. Will the prices drop below pre-panic levels? Probably not, but that's due to inflation, the overall increased demand and some increased costs such as fuel prices and transportation expenses. I don't think we'll see $20/K primers again (at least not a steady price after the bubble bursts) but the current insanity is not sustainable when the fear dissipates.
The guy that has a shipping container full of primers that he paid $90/K for MUST to sell them for more than $90/K. He will desperately try to convince you that $100/K "Is the new normal". If he cannot sell those primers for more than he paid for them - He (not you) has a huge problem.
We've been through this before folks. A few months or even a few years does not define the "new normal".
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I believe, based on having been through several of these shortages, that prices will go down, but not by nearly as much as we might hope and not nearly as quickly as they had after previous shortages. It seems like a ratchet effect, wherein, once prices have been driven up so far that people really feel the pain, ANY decrease seems to placate buyers and they compromise and accept whatever prices eventually settle at - for a while.
In April of 2020, I bought some primers online for $24/k. I advised a good friend to do the same and told him where I'd gotten them. He waited until the next morning and they were all gone. THAT marked the beginning of the current drought for him and me. There just weren't any. I waited for almost a week before I sucked it up and paid $24/k, because I had gotten some 3/4 the way through the previous drought for $22/k.
BEFORE the last drought, I was paying $20/k.
Somewhere around 94 (I think) we had a drought and I had to cough up $12/k for primers. I was pretty put out by that, because I had paid $10/k for those I'd bought before that - and I remember not being thrilled about paying $10/k even then.
I don't remember much about primer prices before $10/k, because they were always available - so much so that there was actual competition to sell them and you could get them for $8/k if you weren't too loose with your spending when you saw them for $9/k somewhere.
I think P&P makes a good point regarding people willing to pay 400% more, and it concerns me because I see it in many things today. HOW do people pay so much more? HOW do people pay whet they do for new cars and trucks? I don't think everyone is actually PAYING for all this stuff as much as running up a lot of debt.
In April of 2020, I bought some primers online for $24/k. I advised a good friend to do the same and told him where I'd gotten them. He waited until the next morning and they were all gone. THAT marked the beginning of the current drought for him and me. There just weren't any. I waited for almost a week before I sucked it up and paid $24/k, because I had gotten some 3/4 the way through the previous drought for $22/k.
BEFORE the last drought, I was paying $20/k.
Somewhere around 94 (I think) we had a drought and I had to cough up $12/k for primers. I was pretty put out by that, because I had paid $10/k for those I'd bought before that - and I remember not being thrilled about paying $10/k even then.
I don't remember much about primer prices before $10/k, because they were always available - so much so that there was actual competition to sell them and you could get them for $8/k if you weren't too loose with your spending when you saw them for $9/k somewhere.
I think P&P makes a good point regarding people willing to pay 400% more, and it concerns me because I see it in many things today. HOW do people pay so much more? HOW do people pay whet they do for new cars and trucks? I don't think everyone is actually PAYING for all this stuff as much as running up a lot of debt.
I like that line of thinking. There needs to be more primers made, given the increase in demand - which I believe (hope) will be more permanent this time. I was on board with component manufacturers in the past, regarding their aversion to adding production capability when they knew that things would settle down. I'm thinking with as many new gun owners as is being claimed, they will need ammo - maybe not all of them. Some will doubtless still have a 35 year old partial box of boutique SD ammo they bought with the gun in their estate sale.
Then, back when gas was $4+/gallon, there were trucks all over the place here (NW Ohio) looking for any sign of any kind of fuel from the ground they could find. Old oil fields were brought back to life and people wanted new ones in areas we'd have never considered putting them in the past. People wanted to sell $4/gallon gas. When the price of gas went back down, all that activity, effort and expense evaporated.
I'm sure anyone would love to sell $80/k primers. No one else is going to get into the game for the sake of making $20/k (or even $30/k) primers again for us.
Glaciers
Alaska Land of the Midnight Sun
P&P as well as Jeff make good points.
Inflation is a factor.
Lots of new/ gun owners who can’t find ammo and trying reloading is a factor.
Reloaders that are caught short but still have needs is a factor.
Hoarders and quick buck scammers is certainly a factor.
But. And this is a big but, Government regulation put in place on manufacturing and transportation of explosive and flammable goods in the name of safety.
Could become like the OSHA Cowboy, some of you might remember.
Certain government factions, I’m not pointing a finger, but they have always existed for one reason or another. But, regulations are used to stifle an industries when certain agendas are unleashed.
Inflation is a factor.
Lots of new/ gun owners who can’t find ammo and trying reloading is a factor.
Reloaders that are caught short but still have needs is a factor.
Hoarders and quick buck scammers is certainly a factor.
But. And this is a big but, Government regulation put in place on manufacturing and transportation of explosive and flammable goods in the name of safety.
Could become like the OSHA Cowboy, some of you might remember.
Certain government factions, I’m not pointing a finger, but they have always existed for one reason or another. But, regulations are used to stifle an industries when certain agendas are unleashed.
CZ93X62
Official forum enigma
As long as fools keep paying $80-$125 per 1,000 for primers, the sellers will be happy to continue their scalping activities. I believe that prices will retreat eventually, but not to the $26/1000 that I paid in late 2019. The consumers will need to discipline themselves far more than they have for the past couple years.
JonB
Halcyon member
Here is some "Third-hand" info I got in a email 3 weeks ago, from a brass flipper I've sold range brass to. He comes off as a bit of a Jack-Wagon, but I know he has legitimate contacts. I edited all the politics out of this email, because it's not allowed here, as well as we all know it anyway.
===========================================================
Listen,
I don’t have time to call a bunch of you on this deal. But it seems that every single reloading friend I have needs primers. Well, Brownell’s just got in a shit ton of them. They have LR and SR in stock, CCI $82 and $89 respectively. I didn’t even check for pistol. But they probably have those too.
***edited out a 3 paragraph diatribe about politics
Now, let me help out everyone on another “point”. A lot of people are complaining about some prices they have seen, even recently, lIke the other day one of you called me from Cabelas to tell me they had stock on about everything, but you could only buy 2 trays, and didn’t like the price. Bear with me for a brief moment while I settle something.
***edited out 2 more paragraphs about politics
You will not find primers for $33/1000 ever again. I spoke with a good friend in Texas last week who is an ammo manufacturer. He told me that his new wholesale price on a brick of regular CCI or Federal or Remington primers is no longer $17. It is $45. And that is about all you need to know. As he told me, from what his distributor told me, the new normal retail for a brick of primers will be around $85 to $90. That’s it. We have to deal with it. So don’t turn up your nose at these CCI primers at Brownell’s $82 primers. That is the new “normal”. We will have to spend 9 cents to prime a case, not 3 or 4. That is just how it is. I hope some of you can get some primers before they are long gone.
Just remember I took a moment to at least tell all of my local reloading friends about this. That is all that matters. I do care and I do try to help.
One more thing….I am attaching my newly updated brass list for you. I have sold more brass his year than the last four combined and am running out of brass. No one has any. All of my suppliers are dried up. So if you are sitting on a bunch of brass that you don’t need, or have friends that do, please shoot me a quick email or call me. I have a lot of cash, and need to buy a lot of brass.. for that….thank you!!!
===========================================================
Listen,
I don’t have time to call a bunch of you on this deal. But it seems that every single reloading friend I have needs primers. Well, Brownell’s just got in a shit ton of them. They have LR and SR in stock, CCI $82 and $89 respectively. I didn’t even check for pistol. But they probably have those too.
***edited out a 3 paragraph diatribe about politics
Now, let me help out everyone on another “point”. A lot of people are complaining about some prices they have seen, even recently, lIke the other day one of you called me from Cabelas to tell me they had stock on about everything, but you could only buy 2 trays, and didn’t like the price. Bear with me for a brief moment while I settle something.
***edited out 2 more paragraphs about politics
You will not find primers for $33/1000 ever again. I spoke with a good friend in Texas last week who is an ammo manufacturer. He told me that his new wholesale price on a brick of regular CCI or Federal or Remington primers is no longer $17. It is $45. And that is about all you need to know. As he told me, from what his distributor told me, the new normal retail for a brick of primers will be around $85 to $90. That’s it. We have to deal with it. So don’t turn up your nose at these CCI primers at Brownell’s $82 primers. That is the new “normal”. We will have to spend 9 cents to prime a case, not 3 or 4. That is just how it is. I hope some of you can get some primers before they are long gone.
Just remember I took a moment to at least tell all of my local reloading friends about this. That is all that matters. I do care and I do try to help.
One more thing….I am attaching my newly updated brass list for you. I have sold more brass his year than the last four combined and am running out of brass. No one has any. All of my suppliers are dried up. So if you are sitting on a bunch of brass that you don’t need, or have friends that do, please shoot me a quick email or call me. I have a lot of cash, and need to buy a lot of brass.. for that….thank you!!!
Bingo . . .
Ian
Notorious member
Historically, as Jeff and JonB's acquaintance pointed out, the prices for primers settle in at about double after every major shortage. We'll see 89.99 for a long time and then down to high 60s.
Powder will settle in at a proportionally higher increase than primers this time, been overdue for a major price "correction" for a couple of decades.
Inflation. We're going to see inflation like in the Carter administration together with all the other new challenges and difficulties our economy and workforce are experiencing and will for some time to come. The middle class is dead, the post WW II boom is finally over, and the funny money bubble is gonna pop and then everyone will finally see olain and clear the situation we're REALLY in and have been for some time but have been insulated from by the credit bubble. The ballon may deflate slowly rather than pop overnight, but in a few years it will take a wheelbarrow load of $100 bills to buy a loaf of bread.
Get ready.
Powder will settle in at a proportionally higher increase than primers this time, been overdue for a major price "correction" for a couple of decades.
Inflation. We're going to see inflation like in the Carter administration together with all the other new challenges and difficulties our economy and workforce are experiencing and will for some time to come. The middle class is dead, the post WW II boom is finally over, and the funny money bubble is gonna pop and then everyone will finally see olain and clear the situation we're REALLY in and have been for some time but have been insulated from by the credit bubble. The ballon may deflate slowly rather than pop overnight, but in a few years it will take a wheelbarrow load of $100 bills to buy a loaf of bread.
Get ready.
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Mitty38
Well-Known Member
Guessing primers will be at about 7. 5 cents each. Which is the best I can get them now, locally.
About the same thing and increase happened during the Clinton thing. Just more amplification of the drama with the social media boom.
Wash rinse repeat.
I'd say if they start staying on the shelves a bit more. Then is the time of stabilization and time to work on buying to save some back, say for the next 10 years or so. Then rotate stock.
About the same thing and increase happened during the Clinton thing. Just more amplification of the drama with the social media boom.
Wash rinse repeat.
I'd say if they start staying on the shelves a bit more. Then is the time of stabilization and time to work on buying to save some back, say for the next 10 years or so. Then rotate stock.
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"They" being the ones realizing the profits....The manufacturers. I read a post in another gun site of a guy who works in a primer factory warehouse where they have huge supplies of primers just sitting there. And have been for a long time. So it sounds like they are sitting on them to drive up prices. Ya-ya I know it may just be another internet BS post but it also may not be. Just food for thought.
Mitty38
Well-Known Member
Standard buisness procedure for large second tier manufacturers. I may be wrong but I would put money on it . Not the bank, but a bet.
I am in a very different business but same principle. We sit on hundreds of thousands of pounds of raw and finished material. Even during the first covid slump, and during the massive demand after, we still did.
That is probably what the warehouse of primers going no where is about.
We have customers that have contracts with us to be able to produce a certain amount of material on demand with just a week or so to comply. Way beyond our ability to produce, or be sure we can obtain enough raw marterial to produce. So we warehouse.
We loose money but we keep good customers which keeps a sure flow of income.
Our company hates doing,it but it has become a must we are a 2nd tier MFG.
Primer making is also second tier, means you make something from Raw materials that others use in making a complete product. Same thing, same rules.
Final tier MFG like ammo mfg don't warehouse large amounts of components, unless they are making there own. Then usually they have that warehoused under a different entity for tax reasons even if on the same property.
I am in a very different business but same principle. We sit on hundreds of thousands of pounds of raw and finished material. Even during the first covid slump, and during the massive demand after, we still did.
That is probably what the warehouse of primers going no where is about.
We have customers that have contracts with us to be able to produce a certain amount of material on demand with just a week or so to comply. Way beyond our ability to produce, or be sure we can obtain enough raw marterial to produce. So we warehouse.
We loose money but we keep good customers which keeps a sure flow of income.
Our company hates doing,it but it has become a must we are a 2nd tier MFG.
Primer making is also second tier, means you make something from Raw materials that others use in making a complete product. Same thing, same rules.
Final tier MFG like ammo mfg don't warehouse large amounts of components, unless they are making there own. Then usually they have that warehoused under a different entity for tax reasons even if on the same property.
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Petrol & Powder
Well-Known Member
/\ THIS /\
The Seller can ASK whatever price they wish. It is the BUYER that has the power to say NO.
Dimner
Named Man
Primers, powder, and bullets have become a market for the rich and the desperate.
At some point the rich and the desperate will be sated. I don't know when, but they will. After that. I bet we see a slow reduction in prices. Bit it's going to be really SLOW. As the price slowly reduces, the non-rich and non desperate will start trickling back in and that new demand will slow price reductions. When those people are finally sated, we will get to the new normal. I suspect that will be with a brick of primers at about 50 bucks and a pound of non-fancy (imr3031 or the like) powder in the high 20s at the very least.
At some point the rich and the desperate will be sated. I don't know when, but they will. After that. I bet we see a slow reduction in prices. Bit it's going to be really SLOW. As the price slowly reduces, the non-rich and non desperate will start trickling back in and that new demand will slow price reductions. When those people are finally sated, we will get to the new normal. I suspect that will be with a brick of primers at about 50 bucks and a pound of non-fancy (imr3031 or the like) powder in the high 20s at the very least.
Petrol & Powder
Well-Known Member
I'm calling absolute B.S. on some unknown source claiming the manufacturers have warehouses with huge supplies of primers "just sitting there".
Were they sitting right next to the 100 M.P.G. carburetors that "the government" brought up to keep them out of the hands of the citizens?
Not only is that total bullshit, urban legend and laughable, it is illogical. No one would pass the opportunity to take their profit while they could. There is currently a huge market for primers and no corporation in the business of making money is going to miss an opportunity to SELL those primers.
Who is this guy that works in a " primer factory warehouse " ??? Because I bet he has a second job selling bridges that connect Manhattan to Brooklyn.
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Petrol & Powder
Well-Known Member
The prices will slip a little at first but once the bubble bursts, the market price will crash quickly.
Remember that panic cuts both ways - When prices drop, those that bought in at the peak will need to dump their product as quickly as possible to recoup what they can before the market completely collapses. Risk is an evil and unforgiving mistress.