Your opinion on future prices and availability of primers ,powder and bullets.
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CZ93X62
Official forum enigma
My views are built upon what I have seen happening in this market niche for close to 50 years. I have opinions about the hows and whys, but little actual first-hand knowledge to base them on. The feast-or-famine inventory of reloading consumables is just a fact of life. When the feast is on, buy in depth; when a famine is under way, DO NOT feed the predators and scalpers. As consumers, we wield a large measure of power in this market. We should stop squandering that decisive edge on panic buying.
fiver
Well-Known Member
this same discussion is on every other gun based website i know of.
A. i'll buy what i want, as i need it no matter what it costs.
these are the same guys that think a new chevy truck at 77-K is a good deal.
B. i'll wait it out, or stop shooting at some point.
even if that means going fishing all summer.
and the C. guys.
stop paying stupid prices for stuff.
they don't cost 75 bucks and they'll be back down to 35 dollars when they get caught back up again.
we've all been through this before, and the same thing has happened every single time.
if we fall into a depression of epic proportions stuff will still be available, just no one will have the money to buy it.
before the depression hits the IIC will have us all involved in a war, causing more grief in the reloading world than what we see now.
A. i'll buy what i want, as i need it no matter what it costs.
these are the same guys that think a new chevy truck at 77-K is a good deal.
B. i'll wait it out, or stop shooting at some point.
even if that means going fishing all summer.
and the C. guys.
stop paying stupid prices for stuff.
they don't cost 75 bucks and they'll be back down to 35 dollars when they get caught back up again.
we've all been through this before, and the same thing has happened every single time.
if we fall into a depression of epic proportions stuff will still be available, just no one will have the money to buy it.
before the depression hits the IIC will have us all involved in a war, causing more grief in the reloading world than what we see now.
Petrol & Powder
Well-Known Member
Fiver is correct - We've all been through this before and that isn't a reference to the last few years or even the last 10 years.
Nor is that observation limited to shortages of reloading components, we've been through shortages of other products.
Nor is that observation limited to shortages of reloading components, we've been through shortages of other products.
BBerguson
Official Pennsyltuckian
I’ve been making due with what I have and will ride this out as long as I can. Which realistically, I can probably ride it the rest of my life. Back in the 90’s my FIL and I both stocked up on spp’s because that was what we were shooting. He passed away in 99 and I got all of his reloading stuff. So now, with a good stockpile of spp’s, i’m shooting them in cartridges they will fit and just happen to be goi’d cast bullet cartridges in the rifles I like the most, bolt action. This year I’ve shot more rifle than any year ever in my life, thanks to my spp’s of all things! 450 Bushmaster, 350 Legend, 222 and 223 (in an AR), and 308. I could get some spp brass for my 6.5 Creedmoor but I’d need a mold and sizer die and I just don’t have the desire for it right now. Working on getting a new 308 after I get one sold.
So yeah, a local shop has primers but they are 12 & 13 bucks a hundred and I don’t need them that bad. I’ll ride it out and keep riding for a long time. I have a price I’ll go to when I need large pistol and rifle but the prices aren’t there yet and I’m not desperate for them yet either.
Somebody on another site said he was buying primers for $38 a thousand but wouldn’t sell me any because he sold some to other guys on the site and they were flipping them. I get it, he don’t know me from Adam and at least he told me his prices and said that shop with the 100% + markup is really taking advantage of their customers… I agree. I think I might know who the guy is. There’s a guy with a class 6 ammo license an hour south of me who does some pretty high volume reloading, like millions of rounds. He has 5 Dillon 1100’s in his shop and 3 of them are motorized. Sorry, I’m rattling on…
So yeah, a local shop has primers but they are 12 & 13 bucks a hundred and I don’t need them that bad. I’ll ride it out and keep riding for a long time. I have a price I’ll go to when I need large pistol and rifle but the prices aren’t there yet and I’m not desperate for them yet either.
Somebody on another site said he was buying primers for $38 a thousand but wouldn’t sell me any because he sold some to other guys on the site and they were flipping them. I get it, he don’t know me from Adam and at least he told me his prices and said that shop with the 100% + markup is really taking advantage of their customers… I agree. I think I might know who the guy is. There’s a guy with a class 6 ammo license an hour south of me who does some pretty high volume reloading, like millions of rounds. He has 5 Dillon 1100’s in his shop and 3 of them are motorized. Sorry, I’m rattling on…
Bret4207
At the casting bench in the sky. RIP Bret.
Food prices are "expected" to rise 5-6% this year, which means it'll likely be more like 10-12%, fuel is going up (15 cents in a week here), steel products are stupid expensive and rising, copper/aluminum the same. It's all going up, it's all fine with a lot of people profiting from it. What can we do about it? Not much. Brace yourself, 'cuz it ain't getting better.
Oldest boy asked what it took to get set up to reload, his buddy is interested. I told him to forget it, explained the situation. Kid had the "but.....but........but it's going to straighten out, right?" look on his face.
Oldest boy asked what it took to get set up to reload, his buddy is interested. I told him to forget it, explained the situation. Kid had the "but.....but........but it's going to straighten out, right?" look on his face.
Petrol & Powder
Well-Known Member
These issues are not simple. They cannot be explained or defined by pointing at one thing and saying, "there, that's the source of this problem".
But we have the advantage of history. we can look at the big, long-term picture provided by the past.
There have been many periods of inflation, booms, recessions, shortages, good times and bad times. There are countless factors that influence those conditions, and those factors are not always obvious at the time.
There were recessions and panics in the 1800's. Gold rushes, mass migrations, huge population gains from immigration, a civil war, industrialization.
The 1900's were no better in terms of stability. Wars, depression, the Spanish flu, incredible economic prosperity at times and crushing inflation at other times. Banks collapsed, stock markets outperformed all expectations, some businesses grew beyond the wildest of dreams and others failed. Real estate booms and busts. Over-production of oil in the 1920's that was so immense that the price of oil dropped below 10 cents a barrel! An oil shortage in the 1970's that crippled the nation for a time. And thus, it goes and thus it will always go.
We've been through this before. And we will ABSOULTELY go through it many, many more times.
I find comfort in history. No one can predict the future, but we can learn from the past.
But we have the advantage of history. we can look at the big, long-term picture provided by the past.
There have been many periods of inflation, booms, recessions, shortages, good times and bad times. There are countless factors that influence those conditions, and those factors are not always obvious at the time.
There were recessions and panics in the 1800's. Gold rushes, mass migrations, huge population gains from immigration, a civil war, industrialization.
The 1900's were no better in terms of stability. Wars, depression, the Spanish flu, incredible economic prosperity at times and crushing inflation at other times. Banks collapsed, stock markets outperformed all expectations, some businesses grew beyond the wildest of dreams and others failed. Real estate booms and busts. Over-production of oil in the 1920's that was so immense that the price of oil dropped below 10 cents a barrel! An oil shortage in the 1970's that crippled the nation for a time. And thus, it goes and thus it will always go.
We've been through this before. And we will ABSOULTELY go through it many, many more times.
I find comfort in history. No one can predict the future, but we can learn from the past.
Dimner
Named Man
I wouldn't be hasty to discourage anyone from reloading. I never entered the hobby of reloading so I could save money on ammo. I entered the hobby to make loads the fit to my specs/requirements. I started casting for the same reason, there were no jacketed bullets that fit my requirements.
My first reloading project was to take my marlin 336 and cobble up some low velocity squirrel loads with light bullets. Something I would never find locally. When the 30 cal 100 grain bullets didn't perform the way i wanted, I dove into casting.
It would stink to start today and have to pony up $9 for 100 primers, but I would do it so I could experiment and make the loads I couldn't find anywhere else. I started on the lee loader, and a couple packs of primers would last me for months.
Besides, more demand for reloading equipment and components can only help us in the long run. It might not help us with primer prices for the next decade. But it will help us with innovation in the reloading industry.
fiver
Well-Known Member
high demand is what got us into the situation we are in now.
higher numbers is okay as long as the supply is up to snuff.
but it ain't.
and it won't ever be, the factories are stuck in only making what their predictions say they need, and they only order that many supplies.
they have less than zero interest in ever upping primer production, and could care less [or less than less] if they ever release any primers to us reloaders.
in their perfect world they make 7 million Sr-Sp whatever 1 cent primers and none of them ever leave the system.
except inside little 20 or 50 count boxes [with about 40% markup] along with a case, bullet, and some powder.
all we are good for is taking up the excess at an even slightly [in normal times] higher profit.
other than that [shrug] too bad for us, and they don't care.
if you think differently try sending them an E-mail asking where the primers are.
i bet you get a ''form letter'' letting you know they are making all the ammo they can right now and you just need to look harder for those little white/blue/green boxes with 20 or 50 rounds in them.
higher numbers is okay as long as the supply is up to snuff.
but it ain't.
and it won't ever be, the factories are stuck in only making what their predictions say they need, and they only order that many supplies.
they have less than zero interest in ever upping primer production, and could care less [or less than less] if they ever release any primers to us reloaders.
in their perfect world they make 7 million Sr-Sp whatever 1 cent primers and none of them ever leave the system.
except inside little 20 or 50 count boxes [with about 40% markup] along with a case, bullet, and some powder.
all we are good for is taking up the excess at an even slightly [in normal times] higher profit.
other than that [shrug] too bad for us, and they don't care.
if you think differently try sending them an E-mail asking where the primers are.
i bet you get a ''form letter'' letting you know they are making all the ammo they can right now and you just need to look harder for those little white/blue/green boxes with 20 or 50 rounds in them.
Ian
Notorious member
Dimner has a point. I'll add to it: The same situation exists with loaded ammunition, so did you suggest his friend take up what, postage stamp collecting? Bird watching? Golf?
How about he pick up a nice TC Hawkin or any cheap, semi-traditional flint lock rifle and play with that until things either straighten out, or don't? (either way he'll be ahead).
462
California's Central Coast Amid The Insanity
Wage and price controls, OPEC's oil embargo, and the Misery Index come quickly to mind.Plus now days it's feels like the 70's again.
RicinYakima
High Steppes of Eastern Washington
Terrible times! I was a public employee, Firefighter Medic, and was having to take money out of my retirement account to put food on the table. Plus working 56 hours a week at the fire station and hustling up jobs on the side. 1975 thru 1990 was terrible. FWIW40 years ago index at 19.7 with a wife and two babies good times.
Petrol & Powder
Well-Known Member
High SUSTAINED demand would be a good thing. We are just starting to see that effect now with the start-up of a new company in Texas.
Manufacturers are very reluctant to expend hundreds upon hundreds of millions of dollars to meet TEMPORARY demands (and those temporary demands are measured in multiple years, not months). If there truly is a sustainable demand that is significantly large enough to recoup investments on the order of hundreds of millions of dollars, someone will step to meet that demand. When there is money to be made in the long term, someone will ALWAYS fill that demand.
These cycles are LONG and enormous capital outlays are risky moves. However, if there is money to be made, (over a long term) people will take that risk.
It is the relatively small profit margin of primers (in a market that is not being driven by panic and fear) that makes it incredibly risky to invest hundreds of millions of dollars to expand production. Now, we may be getting to the point where that risk seems smaller, and the chance of long-term profits seem greater - which is why investors are building a new primer manufacturing facility in Texas. They think that demand WILL be long-term.
It's still too early to tell but it's promising that investors are willing to risk that money.
dannyd
Well-Known Member
I was in the Navy; E-5 pay feeding all 4 of us plus every odd job I could find. Looking back they were good times no regrets.
462
California's Central Coast Amid The Insanity
1975: $30,000 first mortgage 14.25% interest rate. 1981: $20,000 addition and remodel second mortgage
16% interest rate. 1982: Divorced, $650 first and second mortgage payments but kept the house, child support, rented out two bedrooms, gas was $1.25 and the truck got 10 mph, asked my father for $5 for gas, the only time in my life I ever asked for anything (well, maybe, a bike for Christmas when I was in the 4th grade). Times were tough.
16% interest rate. 1982: Divorced, $650 first and second mortgage payments but kept the house, child support, rented out two bedrooms, gas was $1.25 and the truck got 10 mph, asked my father for $5 for gas, the only time in my life I ever asked for anything (well, maybe, a bike for Christmas when I was in the 4th grade). Times were tough.
Patience and perseverance works. I graduated from college in 1973 with $68.00 in my pocket, no job, no place to live, and an ex-wife who sued me 13 times the first seven years (MVP can mean "Most Valuable Player" or "Mean Vindictive Protagonist"). Went to work as a chemical engineer to be near my son which did not work out as I was on call every weekend to be at the plant in case of trouble.
Then went back to work as a machinist for far more money and little weekend work, this is what I did to put myself through college. The price for reloading was a priority as I shot Bullseye since the concentration needed for 4 or 5 hours at the match took my mind off all the rest of my life. Reloading was the only way I could afford this shooting.
As time went by, I bought in greater quantities to have the same lot number to put one variable under control. Today, reserving AA 4100 and V-V N-135 for matches, Alice and I can possibly get through this season and next match season using the primers we have and other powders for practice.
By 2024, the forces of market demand should alleviate due to a new primer manufacturer and people fulfilling their shooting. At that time, we will need to consider as to the hoarders and scalpers, remember the Dirty Harry movie's impact on the S&W Model 29. S&W Model 29's jumped from $196.00 to $450.00 when dealers could get them. Then production caught up with demand and these same guns languished for several years on the scalper's gun show tables. "Toughsky Shitsky" as the Russian Marines say.
Each company has their interior business polices and no company should be judged for holding inventory. It's their business policy and operating procedures.
We can only deal with 2023 and 2024 when these years arrive. Then we will have facts and data. In the meantime, we can make the new primer manufacturer aware of our market and needs.
Then went back to work as a machinist for far more money and little weekend work, this is what I did to put myself through college. The price for reloading was a priority as I shot Bullseye since the concentration needed for 4 or 5 hours at the match took my mind off all the rest of my life. Reloading was the only way I could afford this shooting.
As time went by, I bought in greater quantities to have the same lot number to put one variable under control. Today, reserving AA 4100 and V-V N-135 for matches, Alice and I can possibly get through this season and next match season using the primers we have and other powders for practice.
By 2024, the forces of market demand should alleviate due to a new primer manufacturer and people fulfilling their shooting. At that time, we will need to consider as to the hoarders and scalpers, remember the Dirty Harry movie's impact on the S&W Model 29. S&W Model 29's jumped from $196.00 to $450.00 when dealers could get them. Then production caught up with demand and these same guns languished for several years on the scalper's gun show tables. "Toughsky Shitsky" as the Russian Marines say.
Each company has their interior business polices and no company should be judged for holding inventory. It's their business policy and operating procedures.
We can only deal with 2023 and 2024 when these years arrive. Then we will have facts and data. In the meantime, we can make the new primer manufacturer aware of our market and needs.
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Bret4207
At the casting bench in the sky. RIP Bret.
There are NO primers available around here- none, nada, zilch. Anyone that has them is holding onto them and the shops either can't get them or they're selling to their buddies.