Really need LPP's Anybody been watching the availability ?

[Jeff H]

I was a bit harsh in a recent comment concerning primer prices.....

If you meant post #3, above, I sure didn't think it was "harsh," and it certainly did not disparage anyone who HAS to pay the ransom right now. Everyone has their own limits for various reasons and I agree with your post above - I don't need primers THAT badly.

At least not right at this minute. Maybe down the road, I might....

There are folks who will pay that ransom - those who just have to right now and those who aren't affected so much by the price, but eventually, it will get old and the majority will rule in matters of the market - if the majority of the market isn't buying, things will eventually have to come down.

If post #3 is all the grouchier you get when you're grouchy, you're easier to get along with than a LOT of people I know, even when they're in a good mood.

I'm a tad self-conscious about my comments regarding such things as well. I hate to see anybody suffer, especially from a group like those who are members here. It's inevitable that each of us will get caught short on something sometime even though we are responsible and diligent about "staying ahead of the curve." I don't mean to sound like I'm gloating. When I indicate that it's not affecting me, it's not affecting me monetarily - I'm just going to have to shoot recreationally much less.

 

[RicinYakima]

The guy that lives around the corner on my block is a long haul trucker, and hauls out of Seattle eastbound. His co-driver tested positive for Covid and now both are on 14 day quarantine. He is not making money, and we aren't getting product.

 

[STIHL]

At present, there at 70 freighters anchored off Long Beach/San Pedro/Los Angeles Harbors, and over 100 anchored in total along West Coast ports. There are no berths open to off-load the freighters, and holding yards are filled past capacity. Rail and truck logistics aren't handling this freight for some reason. The system got clogged somehow. Our primer shortages are just on symptom of a system that is in need of immediate attention.

If you ever worked on the ports of LA, Long beach you could understand, it takes too long to get in and out is part of the problem, other part is there isn't enough trucking or rail capacity. They are running them as fast as they can and cant keep up. last time I flew out there were around 30 anchor waiting to unload.

If they ever get caught up it will help with the prices of some things for sure. probably a lot of raw materials in those containers as well.

 

[quicksylver]

anyone seen the container ships anchored off the west and east coasts, not able to unload because of labor shortages,looks like June 21 st. I like everyone else, pre covid, was able to walk into any of my lgs's and pick up my choice of CCI primers for 26 per K and I bemoned that.Natchez seems rediculus but primers are being bid up to just shy of $200 per K on GB. playing the DA I have to say us casters are in a good place
compared to those who shoot J'ed bullets,my GCS run me$3.00 per hundred, that means my bullets cost me the same, descent .30 cal bullets are running close to $50.00per C. Hey, I would like to pay $5,000. for another new F250 4x4 like I did in '75 but it ain't going to happen,Honestly am happy to still be here to complain, Sadly A couple of my shooting buddys aren't. Stay well my friends

 

[david s]

Like the title says: Has anyone been watching if Primers are coming back?
My shooting buddy, Ed and I, are starting to hurt!

I can't help any with LPP but you mentioned in another post about using your 1911 quite a bit. If you have small pistol primers maybe send out a feeler for some of the small primer pocket 45 ACP brass.

 

[Jeff H]

I can't help any with LPP but you mentioned in another post about using your 1911 quite a bit. If you have small pistol primers maybe send out a feeler for some of the small primer pocket 45 ACP brass.

This is where I could almost justify giving up my 44 Special for a 45 Colt - as long as it also had a 45 ACP cylinder. It makes more sense, but I just can't let go of that 44 Special. My last argument that I couldn't get a Charter Bulldog in 45 Colt or ACP is no longer a valid argument, but that was my rationale when I made the choice between the 45 Colt and 44 Special when I started paring things down.

 

[JWFilips]

Yes, Have a bunch of that saved up! Will be my next resort!

 

[fiver]

the small cases seem to be slightly more accurate... jus sayin.

 

[Petrol & Powder]

Major economies are like large ships or long trains- They take a LONG time to start and stop.

When you pay people more money to not work than to work, bad things happen. And when you change that policy it takes a LONG time to re-start that economic engine.

 

[obssd1958]

My daughter, my brother-in-law, and my gun show co-promoter, are all truck drivers. Due to covid, quarantines, unemployment incentives, and general lack of warm bodies to accomplish anything from loading, to dispatching, to driving - our distribution network is a total cluster...
Until it is fixed, we are going to see shortages of EVERYTHING that we purchase. And I predict that it will take years to come back to a semblance of what it was before this crap started.

 

[L Ross]

I was a bit harsh in a recent comment concerning primer prices, but I'm not feeling well so my usual even-keel attitude took the afternoon off. You'll be happy to know that my attitude returned just as the streetlights were coming on that evening. I am back to being my usual heretical self.

That Natchez price ($86/1K + HazMutant + shipping) is outright piracy, but if someone has need of the primers it isn't my place to criticize their decision to spend that sum. I like what Fiver posted just above. I don't think we will see the $26.50/1K I paid two years ago for WSP primers again, but $33-$35 is probably where things will bottom out at. Someday.

At present, there at 70 freighters anchored off Long Beach/San Pedro/Los Angeles Harbors, and over 100 anchored in total along West Coast ports. There are no berths open to off-load the freighters, and holding yards are filled past capacity. Rail and truck logistics aren't handling this freight for some reason. The system got clogged somehow. Our primer shortages are just on symptom of a system that is in need of immediate attention.

Somehow Ol'CZ I reckon you didn't stop at 1,000 of those WSP primers when Olin had the rebates going just to sweeten the pot so to speak. I know I thought the prudent course was to take maximum advantage of said rebate. A happy squirrel has a larder full of acorns.

 

[CZ93X62]

Somehow Ol'CZ I reckon you didn't stop at 1,000 of those WSP primers when Olin had the rebates going just to sweeten the pot so to speak. I know I thought the prudent course was to take maximum advantage of said rebate. A happy squirrel has a larder full of acorns.

Mrs. Paine did not raise foolish children.

When the price is cheap--stock stuff deep. It will happen again. The country can't stay this stupid forever. I think.

 

[L Ross]

My daughter, my brother-in-law, and my gun show co-promoter, are all truck drivers. Due to covid, quarantines, unemployment incentives, and general lack of warm bodies to accomplish anything from loading, to dispatching, to driving - our distribution network is a total cluster...
Until it is fixed, we are going to see shortages of EVERYTHING that we purchase. And I predict that it will take years to come back to a semblance of what it was before this crap started.

About time some folks get a slap upside the melon and realize just how fragile our modern society is. Unintended consequences, deliberate attacks on the West, frittering away our strengths, and subsidizing our weaknesses with borrowed money. I am glad I am nearing the end of my rope before I see the ultimate ruin of so much I hold dear.

If this rantus minorus is out of bounds please delete with my apologies.

 

[Tomme boy]

I don't think the price will come back to $30/1K ever again. It will be $60/1K is what I am thinking.

 

[CZ93X62]

I don't think the price will come back to $30/1K ever again. It will be $60/1K is what I am thinking.

More like $35-$40 per 1K, max. Once the flippers and panic buyers knock off their nonsense, supplies will fill up--warehouses will be overstocked--and discounts will follow. Buy at the dip, in quantity. Then real Achilles heel in the supply system is the relative lack of storage and warehouse space, a sword that cuts both ways. In times of shortage, the supplies strip out quickly and stay depleted for extended periods. Once demand moderates and supplies start refilling the product stream, the "Just-in-time" warehousing practices of the makers and jobbers bites them in the ass again due to that limited space problem. They gotta discount merchandise to get it to move and clear space for incoming stock. When those discounts are offered, SWOOP and buy in depth. I have seen five such sequences since the early 1990s; it will occur again. You just have to be PATIENT.

 

[L Ross]

More like $35-$40 per 1K, max. Once the flippers and panic buyers knock off their nonsense, supplies will fill up--warehouses will be overstocked--and discounts will follow. Buy at the dip, in quantity. Then real Achilles heel in the supply system is the relative lack of storage and warehouse space, a sword that cuts both ways. In times of shortage, the supplies strip out quickly and stay depleted for extended periods. Once demand moderates and supplies start refilling the product stream, the "Just-in-time" warehousing practices of the makers and jobbers bites them in the ass again due to that limited space problem. They gotta discount merchandise to get it to move and clear space for incoming stock. When those discounts are offered, SWOOP and buy in depth. I have seen five such sequences since the early 1990s; it will occur again. You just have to be PATIENT.

Patient and have some funds set aside for just such a contingency. A frequent refrain I have read and heard is, "Yeah well when those prices were low I didn't have the money so I put it off." If you can avoid buying at these crazy prices, even if it means curtailing your recreational shooting, not only will the supply fill up faster, but when the prices drop you will get twice as much product for the same amount of money. The fly in the ointment is how fast will our money devalue?

 

[Petrol & Powder]

THE PRICE OF PRIMERS IS NOT BEING SET BY THE SELLERS

THE CURRENT PRICE OF PRIMERS IS BEING SET BY THE BUYERS.

It doesn't cost anywhere near $60/k to produce primers. In fact, it doesn’t even cost anywhere near $40/k to produce primers. The raw materials are inexpensive, and the process is highly automated (although the initial machinery costs are high but that gets spread over a lot of production). There is some cost to packaging and there is some distribution cost.

The manufacturers were able to turn a profit when primers sold for less than $30/K. Even if we add some new price increases for current labor and transportation costs, a two-fold increase in price is not accounted for.

As long as there are plenty of consumers willing to pay high prices for primers – primers will sell for high prices.

AND , the fact that primers are now appearing in retail settings, albeit at grossly inflated prices, is a sign that the market is begining to soften.

 

[Joshua]

I know a lot of new/young reloaders. Many of them will be willing to pay higher prices once primers are available again. They will gorge themselves on $50 to $60 primers. I expect that prices may stay inflated for quite some time while these folks stock up. Some of the old guard will also grudgingly purchase primers at this $50 to $60 price point.

Now, the big question that no one can answer is when will the next cycle of shortages begin. If there is some new cultural/political/plague event that triggers a new shortage in the next 18 months the market will not have enough time to normalize. We may not see prices return to $35 for quite a while, if ever.

I’m 47. The lowest I’ve paid for a gallon of gas was $0.79 when I was 16 years old. I will never buy gas again for that price. I don’t think I will ever pay $20 for a new brick of primers ever again.

 

[JonB]

Now, the big question that no one can answer is when will the next cycle of shortages begin. If there is some new cultural/political/plague event that triggers a new shortage in the next 18 months the market will not have enough time to normalize. We may not see prices return to $35 for quite a while, if ever.

The Tea leaves in my Coffee cup are telling me we won't see normal (whatever that'd be?) until 'possibly' 2025.

 

[Petrol & Powder]

If you were paying $0.79/ gallon of gas in 1990, you were doing well. The average price of a gallon of gas in 1990 in the U.S.A. was $1.15/gallon.

It takes $2.09 in 2021 dollars to equal one 1990 dollar. So adjusted for inflation that $1.15 gallon of gas in 1990 dollars would be $2.41 in today's money.

As for when the next cycle of shortages will occur, there is no crystal ball. Your guess is as good as mine and they are both just guesses.
Terrorist activity, political changes, natural disasters, positive economic growth, improved job markets, oil over production, oil under production, a thriving stock market, high farm yields, low farm yields, yadda, yadda, yadda.
There are too many factors involved and NO ONE knows what the future will hold.

It is unlikely that the price of primers will drop below $30/K, IN TODAY'S money. But that has more to do with the value of money than the actual cost of primers.
However, Primers will continue to sell for north of $40/K ..... AS LONG AS PEOPLE WILL PAY MORE THAN $40/K.