Crime in your neighborhood?

Petrol & Powder

Well-Known Member
I have to agree with Bret concerning crime statistics. Anyone that has ever been involved with any type of crime reporting and the resulting data that is derived from that reporting, knows the fallacies related that that work.

Rural sheriffs and small-town police chiefs notoriously under report crime. This is done to give the impression of low crime and the impression of successful policing. Burglaries become larcenies or trespassing. Malicious wounding (Aggravated assault in some states) becomes misdemeanor assault. Auto theft becomes simple larceny, etc.

The opposite occurs in large urban areas where funding is driven by crime statistics. In those areas they have given up on attempts of concealing crime and exaggerate their crime at times to justify increased funding. Malicious woundings get double counted by the persons present and not by the event or number of victims. Unfounded reports get added to the data, etc.

You can skew statistics anyway you want and get the data you desire.

Even within cities, when you take out the outlying extremes, you will get rates that look far closer to the national averages. There is a far different atmosphere in midtown Manhattan than in the South Bronx. Same holds true for South side Chicago and The Loop. I’m not saying NYC and Chicago are great places but just like there’s a difference between upstate New York and New York City, there’s a difference between the south Bronx and the city as a whole.

Bad people can (and often do) get concentrated in urban cesspools. But bad people can and do exist anywhere there are people. Good, honorable people can also be found in some surprising places.
 

JonB

Halcyon member
Tonight, Friday the 13th...a good night for this experiment ;) ...I'm gonna stay up all night and count all the gun shots I hear from my bedroom window in my small town. Then I'm gonna call the authorities in Minneapolis and ask what number of gunshots their high tech "shot-spotter" recorded. I'm gonna bet the ratio will be somewhere around 1 to 800
AND...
tomorrow is the Pheasant Hunting Opener.

 

Petrol & Powder

Well-Known Member
Perhaps you should wait for sunrise on the 14th and then count the number of shots you hear on opening day of Pheasant season :). Might get different counts of "shots fired". :D
 

JonB

Halcyon member
Oh, I will!
My local sportsman club hosts farmers to raise pheasants for release in this County every spring, usually around 1500. Judging by what I see driving back and forth to the club's gun range all summer long, I suspect most of them just become food for the predators.
 

RBHarter

West Central AR
The map thing for 89415 shows the empty desert to be a hell hole of lawlessness.

The deal with the little bitty places like Boles AR listed at 550 is that every incident per 1000 has to be doubled . Multiplied by 20 where per 10,000 is used . An accidental OD logged in the drug death column goes from oops to a problem pretty fast .

"Statistics and how to make them lie" .

When I look at a per capita number I look at how many at how many are in the capita AND the population. Because 348/10,000 isn't good but 62/500 isn't a big deal with Andy and Barney writing 25-30 tickets for 65/35 , and busting a couple of Hippie wagons for possession and/or open container at 5 counts each , there's 40 of the 62 . Otis spends a night cause Agnes locked him out again once a month a couple of MICs and the shoplifting reports for inventory reconciliation....... statistically it looks like a serious drug , alcohol, and theft problem with a bunch of wreckless drivers .
 

popper

Well-Known Member
A little off subject. GK was at a hotel downtown Dallas for rivalry game, stayed the night. Told his dad, heard gunshots in early eve. Kid learning early!
 

CZ93X62

Official forum enigma
I don't pay much attention to crime 'Statistics'. From FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (sick joke) to local crime pattern analysis, the figures are massaged and manipulated to all points of the compass. Add in that A LOT of offenses go unreported or undocumented.......it is hard to make assumptions about history and well-nigh impossible to predict future criminality.

Prevention--now, THAT cops can affect. A savvy patrol officer knows who the bad guys are in his area. Start making those core offenders' lives interesting by staying on their back and turning their sorry asses upside-down a couple times per week, and you will 1) arrest them for a crime in progress or 2) cause them to re-locate someplace where the constabulary is less attentive. It ain't rocket science.
 

Bret4207

At the casting bench in the sky. RIP Bret.
FWIW, I kind of doubt traffic offenses are counted as "crimes" by these statistical outfits. A "crime" generally involves violation of a Penal Law statute, not V+T offenses unless, maybe, they're felony grade- maybe. Of course a statistician intent on proving his point could add all sorts of bogus numbers, so you never know.
 

Petrol & Powder

Well-Known Member
If we're talking about Uniform Crime Reports [UCR] compiled by the FBI, that's correct, minor traffic offenses are not included in Part I or Part II crimes.

The problem doesn't occur when the numbers are compiled, the problem occurs in the reporting. Like all computing, Garbage in, Garbage out.

UCR is not the only source crime statistics, and many localities will provide their own crime reporting and that’s an entirely different mess.

It’s safe to say that statistics are a tool that can be manipulated to give whatever appearance you wish.
 

JonB

Halcyon member
Shots fired last night
My small town = 0
Minneapolis = about 100 (the orange dots are multiples, yellow dots are singles)
2023-10-14 reduced.jpg
 
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Petrol & Powder

Well-Known Member
That sort of depends on what your definition of a “criminal offense” is. Yes, Texas law enforcement officers may, in SOME cases, make a custodial arrest for a traffic offense but they are required to bring the person before a magistrate. The code REQUIRES officers to release most offenders on a summons for most traffic offenses. The applicable law may be found here:


Most traffic offense do not carry the possibility of jail sentence and are only punishable by fines and license revocation.
 
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CZ93X62

Official forum enigma
Most offenses in California are classed as felonies--misdemeanors--or infractions.

Original intent of classing 'Infractions' as such was to dissuade arrest and incarceration for traffic offenses and minimize fine amounts. As the case developed misdemeanor offenses could be downgraded to infractions just as felonies can be downgraded to misdemeanors via prosecutorial discretion. As you might expect, the initial fine ceiling of $100 for infractions was short-lived.

California's Vehicle Code contains its share of misdemeanors and a few felonies. "Y'all drive careful now--y'hear?"
 

Petrol & Powder

Well-Known Member
Most offenses in California are classed as felonies--misdemeanors--or infractions.

Original intent of classing 'Infractions' as such was to dissuade arrest and incarceration for traffic offenses and minimize fine amounts. As the case developed misdemeanor offenses could be downgraded to infractions just as felonies can be downgraded to misdemeanors via prosecutorial discretion. As you might expect, the initial fine ceiling of $100 for infractions was short-lived.

California's Vehicle Code contains its share of misdemeanors and a few felonies. "Y'all drive careful now--y'hear?"

Virginia is similar.

In Virginia:
Most traffic violations (infractions) do NOT carry the possibility of a jail sentence, if convicted.
They can only be punished by fines and administrative actions (such as suspension of driving privileges).
Typically these defendants are released on a summons (a promise to appear in court to answer the charge) and there is no custodial arrest needed.

Some misdemeanor criminal offenses do not carry the possibility of a jail sentence and can only be punished with a fine.

Some other misdemeanors, and all felonies, carry the potential for incarceration if convicted.

Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean a person cannot be arrested for an infraction or misdemeanor offense. If the defendant cannot be identified or refused to cease criminal behavior, a custodial arrest may be made.

The term “criminal offense” means different things to different people. Anytime the state can take money or freedom from you, the offense can be called “criminal”. But there’s a big difference between running a stop sign and mass murder.
 

Bret4207

At the casting bench in the sky. RIP Bret.
Traffic tickets in Texas are criminal offenses.
But what grade? If it's an infraction or violation then it's not up in the misdemeanor grade, a misdemeanor usually being something punishable buy less than one year in jail... at least here. But that brings in another variable- crimes aren't all at the same levels across the states. What may be a D D Felony in NYS may be an A Misd. in some other state. Gotta have apples to apples, ya know?
 

Bret4207

At the casting bench in the sky. RIP Bret.
Most offenses in California are classed as felonies--misdemeanors--or infractions.

Original intent of classing 'Infractions' as such was to dissuade arrest and incarceration for traffic offenses and minimize fine amounts. As the case developed misdemeanor offenses could be downgraded to infractions just as felonies can be downgraded to misdemeanors via prosecutorial discretion. As you might expect, the initial fine ceiling of $100 for infractions was short-lived.

California's Vehicle Code contains its share of misdemeanors and a few felonies. "Y'all drive careful now--y'hear?"
V+T here involves Infractions, Misd and Fel. Penal, Gen Business, Ag and Markets, Public Health laws, etc, Start with Violations and then Misd and Fel. It's all in the wording of your states laws. A great many of my states laws may have jail or prison type punishment (Misd or Fel) in the books, but no one has ever seen anyone punished by anything but fines. They might as well make them civil offenses since no one in living memory ever got even a weekend in jail.
 

Petrol & Powder

Well-Known Member
V+T here involves Infractions, Misd and Fel. Penal, Gen Business, Ag and Markets, Public Health laws, etc, Start with Violations and then Misd and Fel. It's all in the wording of your states laws. A great many of my states laws may have jail or prison type punishment (Misd or Fel) in the books, but no one has ever seen anyone punished by anything but fines. They might as well make them civil offenses since no one in living memory ever got even a weekend in jail.
Agreed

Criminal simply means – You versus the state and the standard for conviction is proof beyond a reasonable doubt.

Civil means you versus someone else OR you versus the state without the possibility of incarceration. The standard of proof for a civil prosecution is preponderance of the evidence.

A criminal offense can be something as minor as running a stop sign or driving with an expired registration. Just because some offense is a criminal offense doesn’t mean incarceration is on the table.
 

popper

Well-Known Member
Nope, means any action is a criminal case, not traffic or civil court. If just a citation, pay the fine, all is OK but goes on your record.