Population, guns, and economies

[Petrol & Powder]

We all live in little corners of the world that consist of the people and places that exist right around us. Although we know the world is a big place, sometimes it’s easy to forget just how big it is.

The population of the U.S.A. is estimated to be 331,893,745. That’s 331 MILLION people.
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/US
The U.S.A. is the 3rd most populous nation on the planet! The only countries that have larger populations are India and China.

List of countries and dependencies by population - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

There are several different estimates concerning the number of firearms in the U.S.A. but most estimates are around 400 million guns, the VAST majority of which are in the hands of private citizens. No other country in the world even comes close to the number of firearms in private hands.

How Many Guns are in the US? [2024]

After fighting for their independence, the founding fathers enshrined Americans’ right to firearms in the Second Amendment.

americangunfacts.com

The number of guns manufactured in the U.S.A. and the number of guns imported into the U.S.A. has increased dramatically in the last few years.
From the above linked article: "There were nearly 40 million guns purchased legally by Americans in 2020 alone according to FBI records. This was higher than any other year on record so far. 2019 was the second highest year with a little over 28 million firearms purchased. "

Those of us that are a bit older have lived through shortages in the past. Gasoline, coffee, building materials, even umbrellas and snow shovels at times can be in short supply. When you’re in the middle of it, it’s hard to see outside of it. When you look back at past shortages, you have the advantage of perspective.

Here in the Mid-Atlantic states, we recently had a gasoline shortage after a pipeline company suffered a ransom type attack. Everyone and their brother went out and purchased gasoline. Gas stations ran out of fuel and that only served to make the situation appear worse.

We all experienced a bizarre shortage of toilet paper about 20 months ago that was driven entirely by consumer demand. (The strangest panic I've ever witnessed in my life)

With nearly 332 million people, it doesn’t take much for the consumers to drive trends.

 

[L Ross]

There's a title to a thread that could cause heart palpitations in a moderator.

 

[Brad]

This could be a decent thread If we stay out of making it about politics, legislation, etc.

Consumers are not a monolithic block but many are easily swayed by advertising hype. If advertising didn’t work the manufacturers would spend the huge sums of money on it that they do spend. Products don’t need to be better, they just need to sell. Advertising is designed to sell, it isn’t a form of consumer advocacy. Guns are no different from fishing lures- don’t need to catch a fish, just a fisherman.

We live In a time where many want the bestest and newest of everything. They drive the marketplace. We need to understand that many of there new guns or cartridges are not directed towards US, hey are directed to a younger, newer generation of shooters.

We are the unicorns of the shooting world. Very few shooters reload and even fewer will ever cast a bullet. The gun manufacturers don’t even take us into account on this stuff, we don’t matter.

My wife and I often see ads and comment that we are obviously not the target audience.

 

[richhodg66]

I hope they get this primer shortage under control soon, was shooting some .44 Special and .45 ACP yesterday and found out I'm almost out of large pistol primers. Of the primers I use, probably less of those than the others, but it bothers me to have let myself run out.

 

[Brad]

I don’t see it as much as a primer shortage as a huge increase in demand. Estimates are that 8.4 million Americans purchased their first firearm in 2020. That makes for a huge number of people buying ammo that weren’t their a year before. Add that To the number of us who don’t want to runout and stock up and the supply rapidly is diminished.

Manufacturers are running full out but it sells as fast as they can make it. Never been a better time to be a reloaded and caster yet few are entering the hobby.

 

[Petrol & Powder]

If you just look at these numbers alone, that is 68 million guns purchased in two years and doesn't include 2021 figures:

"There were nearly 40 million guns purchased legally by Americans in 2020 alone according to FBI records. This was higher than any other year on record so far. 2019 was the second highest year with a little over 28 million firearms purchased. "

NOW, that is 68 million transfers not 68 million new guns, but it still shows enormous activity in that sector.

 

[MW65]

Was at the local bimart yesterday and surprised that the ammo shelves are being stocked up again... I also saw WW 296 powder... one of my favorites for 30 carbine.

It's going to be a long time to get supplies back, but the light is shining in that proverbial tunnel.

 

[Jeff H]

This could be a decent thread If we stay out of making it about politics, legislation, etc.

..............

My wife and I often see ads and comment that we are obviously not the target audience.

I think I can stay well clear of the line on politics, legislation, etc., but get me started on MARKETING? And I will avoid making my comments a social commentary as much as is possible.

I'll still try my best to not go on a long-winded rant, but at least three observations to share:

1) My wife and I watch a couple network TV shows. We mute the commercials immediately as they come on, but sometimes you can still tell what they are about - but not always. Apparently, we who watch certain shows are forgetful, can't focus, are depressed, ugly, overweight (probably why we are supposed to be depressed) and dearly need a new car to make us young and beautiful again. We're not young, and I ain't beautiful, Neither of us is over-weight, nor depressed (but might be if we believe what the algorithms think of us) and we sure as h....eck don't need a new car with blue-tooth, phone-synching or USB charging ports as the most "thought out" features;

2) My personal preferences for ANYTHING, but especially guns, is apparently suddenly ridiculously out of date and my "buying power" as an "old guy" has become meaningless and irrelevant;

3) I worked so hard to not go on a long-winded rant that I forgot my last observation. Perhaps I DO need a new car...

 

[L Ross]

I don’t see it as much as a primer shortage as a huge increase in demand. Estimates are that 8.4 million Americans purchased their first firearm in 2020. That makes for a huge number of people buying ammo that weren’t their a year before. Add that To the number of us who don’t want to runout and stock up and the supply rapidly is diminished.

Manufacturers are running full out but it sells as fast as they can make it. Never been a better time to be a reloaded and caster yet few are entering the hobby.

I absolutely agree with the demand logic, 100% and as an addendum to that is the way people shoot nowadays. I think back to a time when my Dad and brother and I would shoot some. If we shot up a box of 50 .22's that was something. We had to use shotguns with slugs for deer and you tended to shot them as little as possible. First of all they weren't very accurate with a full choke and bead front sight. They kicked too hard, and a 5 pack of slugs was almost a dollar at Fleet Farm!

My brother and I did piss away quite a few shotgun shells made with a Lee hand tool and later a used Mec 600 Jr. because our Uncle bought us components to protect his cornfields

Nowadays I read on Rimfire Central how many bricks a Dad and his boys go through at a session. I think it is the video game mentality and too much money. Semi autos rules and precision is boring.

 

[358156 hp]

Todays focus is on possession. The more you possess, the better of a person you are. In my tiny microcosm of the universe, knowledge and ability trumps a seemingly inexhaustible budget. Most of these people appear to put everything on credit cards anyway. Then just pay once a month. Like you do your rent.

 

[waco]

Was at the local bimart yesterday and surprised that the ammo shelves are being stocked up again... I also saw WW 296 powder... one of my favorites for 30 carbine.

It's going to be a long time to get supplies back, but the light is shining in that proverbial tunnel.

Funny. Our Bi Mart had 296 on the shelf too. Thurston store in Springfield.

 

[Jeff H]

Todays focus is on possession. The more you possess, the better of a person you are. In my tiny microcosm of the universe, knowledge and ability trumps a seemingly inexhaustible budget. Most of these people appear to put everything on credit cards anyway. Then just pay once a month. Like you do your rent.

THAT's my problem!

I use a credit card to make purchase - ONLY when I KNOW I have the money to pay off the card before the exorbitent interest starts. Never warmed up to the idea of renting money for the sake of having more stuff. The more stuff you have, the more stuff you need to make use of the stuff.

Sometimes, I feel a bit stupid not being able to afford something, when so many others apparently CAN. Then, I remind my self that they are probably in debt up to t heir ears and I feel a little better.

THEN, I feel stupid again, because if you croak while owing all that money - you really got over. You'd had your fun and enjoyed all your stuff pretty much for free. Realistically, no one gets hurt because the money others make off of you over time in interest is WAY more than you were ever into them for while you were alive.

I guess I'm one of those idiots who still thinks you should not live beyond your means, pay your debts in a timely manner and die not owing anyone anything.

 

[RicinYakima]

Nowadays I read on Rimfire Central how many bricks a Dad and his boys go through at a session. I think it is the video game mentality and too much money. Semi autos rules and precision is boring.

Even with the 22 LR shortage last fall and a brick going for $100 here, three guys at the 22 range were whining when they only had one brick to shoot up. Some kind of plastic magazine loading tool for 10/22 mags and it was busy constantly. They were done playing in about 45 minutes.

 

[Petrol & Powder]

Shortages occur when demand outstrips supply. That equation has two sides: a supply side and a demand side.

Reductions in supply are easy to see and very hard to hide. A labor strike at a factory reduces production, a hurricane temporarily shuts down refineries in one area, a fire destroys some facility, etc. These changes in supply are generally short-term problems and readily apparent. An example of a supply disruption was seen in 1988. There was a shortage of antifreeze due to series of explosions and fires that reduced production capacity.

Shortage Seen For Antifreeze (Published 1988)

www.nytimes.com

Increases in demand can be much harder to comprehend, particularly on a large scale. It was illogical, insane consumer demand, that drove a nationwide toilet paper shortage several months ago. We didn’t suddenly run out of trees. There was no massive series of fires at paper mills. There wasn’t some hidden corporate agenda to drive up the cost of toilet paper. The “government” wasn’t hoarding toilet paper. There was just a LOT of humans behaving stupidly. When you have 332 million people it only takes a small percentage of them to add up to a really big number of people.

When people get frustrated concerning shortages, they often concoct false stories to explain those shortages. Bizarre explanations involving collusion between producers or nebulous “government” agendas have no more truth in them than claiming illnesses are caused by witchcraft.

Enormous systemwide increases in demand can be very difficult to grasp on a local level.

In 2008 I heard every ridiculous conspiracy theory about the ammunition shortage. Idiots would claim the “government” was buying up all of the ammunition (hardly). Scared people would claim foreign suppliers were limiting raw materials (they were not). Frustrated people said the manufacturers were colluding to drive up the price of ammunition (Nope, just a lot of panicking consumers). Eventually the market became saturated, the demand decreased, the panic subsided, the supply caught up and prices dropped. If you live through enough shortages, you will realize that they ALWAYS end.

Primers will continue to sell for $80 per thousand for as long as there are idiots willing to PAY $80/K.

$80/K is not the “New Normal”, it is just what the current market will bear. The raw materials didn’t become expensive or rare. The production didn’t decrease. There is no grand, unseen conspiracy. There are just a LOT of people, and a LOT of those people are scared.

 

[david s]

In the 1970's there was a toilet paper shortage after Johnny Carson while doing his monolog for the Tonight Show jokingly said there was a nationwide shortage of TP. People overreacted to the joke and then created a real TP shortage. Never get caught in a stampede you'll get run over.

 

[Jeff H]

@Petrol & Powder , you ought to publish that for peer review. It was more articulate than many of the "papers" I've seen in the past several years.

 

[Kevin Stenberg]

Ricin
An the way those kind of shoots shoot. They learn nothing. except how to eject a magazine and fill it back up.

 

[RicinYakima]

The only exception to the 2008 ammo shortage was the War on Terrorism. Between 2002 and 2006, the Army and USMC burned up all the ammo purchased between 1992 and 2001. When Federal took over Lake City, it took two years to catch up on US Government back orders, and that didn't happen until 2012. You are correct, I think, that now it is civilian demand for more.

 

[fiver]

the new new shooter number has gone up from 9 million to 15 million.
i was just reading a thread posted up by one of those 'industry insiders' about the new numbers.
i questioned how we went from nine to five-ten in 2 months, but whatever.
part of my questioning was based on how we only went up [another] 6 million,, but now there is actually ammo on the shelves when nine completely wiped it all out.
i'm guessing the first 9 stopped buying?

 

[Tomme boy]

I think the primer shortage is by design. Thats what happens when you have an monopoly on reloading components. You can make the shortage better or worse depending on what you see that the amount people will pay. There is no way we are consuming all of the primers being made. The federal govt in the early 2000s was at war and they know how to waste ammo. But primers were there the whole time.

I dont buy the whole new shooters are driving the demand. It is going to happen with all the gun manufacturers as it has happened to the ammo and reloading companies. Your going to have 2-3 companies that own everything. It is getting close now.